grinter001
4 minutes
In previous posts we discussed the first 2 principles behind the Handicap System.
1. Measuring player’s potential
2. Comparing Apples to Apples
3. Removing noise
4. Trusting each other
Let's discuss "Removing Noise"
Having one or two terrible holes per round does not mean that you don’t have the potential to score 3 pars in a row
Noise is removed using two tools that we have already talked about. The first one is by only utilizing the 10 best rounds of the last 20. The second tool is the ESC (Equitable Stroke Control) that sets a cap in the maximum number of strokes allowed per player on a single hole. I won’t further explain each of these tools as we have already discussed them, instead we will talk about the logic behind them.
This whole principle of Removing Noise is also a way of identifying the player’s potential ability. The thought is that “if we remove the ‘one-of’ events, then we can predict more accurately what the performance of a player would be”.
If you look at the ESC as a tool for removing noise, you will notice that it puts a cap that depends on the ability of the player. So a handicap 13 player caps his scores to no more than a 7 on any given hole. This should not happen that often, in fact, using www.TheGrint.com I looked at my brother Henry scores from the last 20 rounds (360 holes) and being a 13 Hcdp he only had nine scores over 7, that’s 2.5% of the time, which could be considered “one of” events.
On the other hand, there is an issue, in my opinion of how that affect a player which potential ability is decreasing. Let's imagine that you are a low handicap. In your case you are only allowed double bogey on any given hole for ESC handicap purposes. Therefore, even if your triple bogeys start to appear more often it will still count as a DB. So it becomes very difficult for a player with a low handicap to go up. Another very visual example is that a 7 Hdcp player, who is only allowed a Double Bogey on any given hole, in some cases would have to play worse than an 11 Hdcp player to obtain the same Handicap Differential.
Consider the image below. A 5.9 Handicap player which name I hided behind "Bob Grinter". We used TheGrint.com Trends tools to see how often he shoots Triple bogey or more. As you see he scores one triple bogey per round. So ESC will shave 1 stroke per round to calculate his Hdcp Differential.
In summary, Removing Noise is a great tool that the Handicap System utilizes to ensure that the potential ability of the stable or improving player is captured properly. On the hand, one could argue that a decreasing ability player would take sometime to see his handicap go up. In any case I do believe the Handicap system is still a fantastic tool.
